In Memoriam: Meles Zenawi 1955–2012

and for Hiroe, Hannah and Adan

Copyright © Alex de Waal 2015

The right of Alex de Waal to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

First published in 2015 by Polity Press

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ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-9557-0

ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-9558-7(pb)

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

De Waal, Alex.

    The real politics of the Horn of Africa : money, war and the business of power / Alex de Waal.

        pages cm

    ISBN 978-0-7456-9557-0 (hardback) – ISBN 978-0-7456-9558-7 (pbk.)    1.  Political culture–Horn of Africa.    2.  Political violence–Horn of Africa.    3.  Political corruption–Horn of Africa.    4.  Horn of Africa–Politics and government.    I.  Title.

    DT367.8.D4 2015

    306.20963–dc23

                            2015004483

Typeset in 10.5/12 12 Sabon by Toppanleefung Best-set, Hong Kong

Printed and bound in Great Britain by Clays, Ltd, St Ives PLC

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Figures

2.1    Michael Porter's ‘five forces’ of business

2.2    The ‘five forces’ of political business

2.3    The ‘stationary bandit’

2.4    The militarized rentier political marketplace

5.1    Sudanese government finances and peace agreements, 1965–84

5.2    Sudanese government finances and peace agreements, 1997–2012

6.1    South Sudan's military payroll

6.2    South Sudan's expenditures driven by revenues, not approved budget

6.3    South Sudan's oil production

9.1    Ethiopian and Eritrean military expenditure (dollar amounts)

9.2    Ethiopian and Eritrean military expenditure (% of GDP)

Maps

3.1    The Horn of Africa, 1980

3.2    The Horn of Africa, 2011

5.1    Sudan and South Sudan

This book is an outcome of thirty years' research and political engagement with the countries of the Horn of Africa. At its heart is an ethnography of contemporary politics, drawing on both the actions and analyses of its subjects – members of the political and security elite – and my own observations and analyses. My hope is that, in understanding this politics better, there is a chance to change it.

I had originally planned to write a more conventional political science analysis, both of the Horn and of the core concepts of the ‘political marketplace’. Early drafts of this book spent much space and effort clarifying where I agreed with, and where I diverged from, leading scholarly accounts of the countries of the Horn, and the literature on conflict and state formation. At the risk of offending the many writers who have toiled away at this particular coalface, and who might justifiably expect to be credited here, I decided instead to invoke the ethnographer's privilege of theorizing from observation. The book opens up more pathways than it can travel, and raises more questions than it can answer. It is a reflection and an exploration intended to provoke debates and open new avenues for research, including my own.

To enumerate the personal and intellectual debts of the last three decades would require a long chapter in itself. However, let me single out some of those without whom this book would not have been possible.

Meles Zenawi, the ablest political intellectual of his generation, played a major role in provoking my thinking and writing: this book is in part a response to a challenge he laid before me. Among his comrades in arms, I have particular debts to Mulugeta Gebrehiwot and Tsadkan Gebretensae. For more than twenty-five years, Abdul Mohammed has been an unstinting force of creativity and optimism for the entire region. Among Sudanese and South Sudanese, my greatest debts are to Yoanes Ajawin and Abdel Salam H. Abdelsalam, who showed how it is possible to retain integrity amid the fierce turbulence that is Sudan. Other Sudanese and South Sudanese who have shaped my thinking include Yousif Kuwa Mekki, Suleiman Rahhal, Abdalla Hamdok, Suleiman Baldo, Francis Deng, Abdel Wahab al Effendi, Gamal al Tom, el Taj el Banan Tajelassfia, Hafiz Mohamed and Godfrey Bulla. My main guides for Eritrea have been Paulos Tesfagiorgis and Dawit Mesfin. For Somalia they have included Rakiya Omaar, Hussein Mursal and Abdi Baafo. Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem was an irreplaceable fount of political commitment, energy and frankness. I have also learned a huge amount from the African leaders with whom I have had the privilege of working: Thabo Mbeki, Pierre Buyoya, Abdelsalam Abubakar and Salim Ahmed Salim. Others involved in peacemaking, less prominent but no less wise or capable, include Elghassim Wane, Boitshoko Mokgatlhe, Pauline Olunga, Barney Afako, Dawit Toga, Itonde Kakoma and Vladimir Zhagora. Jennifer Klot has been a model of intellectual activism. Julie Flint has been invaluable to my engagement with the Nuba Mountains and Darfur. Neha Erasmus has been a voice of humanity for South Sudan.

Others without whom this work would not have been possible include my colleagues Kahssay Gebreyesus, Wendy Foulds and especially Lisa Avery. Nimco Mahamud Hassan has a special place.

Among my many academic mentors and collaborators, I must begin with Wendy James and Ahmed Karadawi, who were instrumental in setting me off on this intellectual journey. Among scholars of the Horn, I have learned much from Rogaia Abu Sharaf, Mark Bradbury, Richard Brown, Mark Duffield, Lidwien Kapteijns, David Keen, Andrew Mawson, Michael Medley, Alula Pankhurst, John Ryle and Eddie Thomas. A number of recent colleagues were particularly important in helping me shape the concept and arguments, including Jacek Kugler, Peter Uvin, Noel Twagiramungu, Isaac Williams, Laura James, Sarah Nouwen, Dave Mozersky, Bridget Conley-Zilkic, Tim Allen, Mary Kaldor, Tatiana Carayannis, Koen Vlassenroot, Marielle Debos, Sarah Chayes and Claire Smith. Rachel Ibreck has contributed especially thoughtful comments and ideas.