Cover Page

 

 

 

For Scarlett, Stella, and Piper

PJF

In loving memory of Christopher Lee Fine

DJF

For Miguel and Toñita

MAZ

LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES, AND EXHIBITS

Tables

  • 2.1 Number, Percent Distribution, and Rate of Injury‐Related Emergency Department Visits, by Age, 2011
  • 2.2 Percent of Persons Lacking Health Insurance, States with State‐Based Marketplace, 18 to 64 Years of Age, 2010–2016
  • 2.3 Cancer Death Rates, by Age, United States, 2013
  • 2.4 Tuberculosis Cases, by Age, United States, 2013
  • 2.5 Deaths, by Sex, United States, 2014
  • 2.6 Number, Percent Distribution, and Rate of Injury‐Related Emergency Department Visits, by Age and Sex, 2011
  • 2.7 Emergency Department Visits, by Race, United States, 2011
  • 2.8 Frequency of Cancer Deaths, by Race and Cancer Site, per 100,000 Population, United States, 2013
  • 2.9 Frequency of New Cancer Cases, by Race and Cancer Site, per 100,000 Population, United States, 2013
  • 2.10 Chronic Disease Risk Factors and Marital Status, 2010
  • 2.11 Percentage of Uninsured Persons Under 65 Years of Age, and Poverty Status, United States, 2005–2016
  • 2.12 Percentage of Persons Lacking Health Insurance Coverage, by Educational Status, United States, 2015
  • 2.13 Inpatient Discharges from Short‐Stay Hospitals, by Region, United States, 2010
  • 2.14 Emergency Department Visits, by Season of the Year, United States, 2011
  • 2.15 Inpatient Deaths, per 100 Persons Hospitalized for Diagnosis, by First‐Listed Diagnosis, United States, 2000, 2005, 2010
  • 2.16 Number and Percent of Emergency Department Visits, by Source of Payment, United States, 2011
  • 2.17 Notifiable Diseases, United States, 2016
  • 3.1 Cases of AIDS, by State, United States, 2013
  • 3.2 Top Ten States by Number of New HIV Diagnoses, United States, 2014
  • 3.3 HIV Case Rate per 100,000 Population, United States, 2012
  • 3.4 Number of Visits with a Doctor or Other Health Care Professional, Adults 18 Years of Age and Older, by Age, Sex, and Race, United States, 2014
  • 3.5 Emergency Department Visits, United States, 2011
  • 3.6 HIV Cases Ratios, by Race and Transmission, United States, 2010–2013
  • 3.7 Age‐Adjusted Diabetes Prevalence Ratios, by Sex and Education Attainment, Mississippi, 2005–2013
  • 3.8 Home Health and Hospice Care Agencies, by Ownership, Geographic Region, and Location, United States, 2014
  • 3.9 Incidence Rate of Selected Infectious Diseases, by Year, United States, 2000–2013
  • 3.10 Age‐Adjusted Invasive Cancer Incidence Rates, by Race, California, 2013
  • 3.11 Asthma Prevalence Rate, by Race and Sex, 2014
  • 3.12 Prevalence of Women Aged 18 and Older Who Reported Receiving a Papanicolaou Test During the Past Three Years, per 100 Population, by Age, Selected States and Territories, United States, 2014
  • 3.13 Prevalence of Women Aged 50 and Older Who Reported Having a Mammogram During the Past Two Years, per 100 Population, by Race, Selected States, United States, 2014
  • 3.14 Crude Death Rate, by Sex and Race, United States, 2011–2012
  • 3.15 Cause‐Specific Mortality Rates for Several Causes of Death, United States, 2014
  • 3.16 Age‐specific Mortality Rate, Malignant Neoplasm, United States, 2012
  • 3.17 Case‐Fatality Rate, by Pathogen, Foodborne Infections, United States, 2010
  • 3.18 Infant Mortality Rate, by Race of Mother, United States, 1990–2012
  • 3.19 Neonatal Mortality Rate, by Race of Mother, United States, 1990–2012
  • 3.20 Post‐Neonatal Mortality Rate, by Race of Mother, United States, 1990–2012
  • 3.21 Proportionate Mortality Ratio Among Plumbers, Pipe/Steam Fitters, White Men, by Age, United States, 1971–1995
  • 3.22 Potential Years of Life Lost Calculation Method, Using Individual‐Level Information
  • 3.23 Potential Years of Life Lost Calculation Method, Using Age Group Information
  • 3.24 Potential Years of Life Lost, Before Age 75, for Selected Causes of Death, United States, 1990–2014
  • 3.25 Mental Health Status Among Diabetics, Mississippi, 2003–2013
  • 4.1 Calculation of Relative Risk
  • 4.2 Association of Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease (CHD)–Relative Risk Analysis
  • 4.3 Retrospective Study Design 2 by 2 Table
  • 4.4 Association Between Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease (CHD)–Proportions Analysis
  • 4.5 Odds Ratio Calculation
  • 4.6 Association Between Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease (CHD)–Odds Ratio Analysis
  • 4.7 Births and Cesarean Sections in the Study Population
  • 4.8 Total Live Births Among Medicaid Beneficiaries
  • 4.9 Cesarean Section Rate and Relative Risk, by Age of Mother
  • 4.10 Cesarean Section Rates and Relative Risk, by Locale
  • 4.11 Myocardial Infarction Rates, per 100,000 Population and HIV Status
  • 4.12 Risk Factors for Falls in Elderly Population
  • 5.1 Outpatient Department Visits, by Age and Sex, United States, 2011
  • 5.2 Lung Cancer and Alcohol Use
  • 5.3 Stratification by Smoking Status
  • 5.4 Standardization of Outpatient Department Visits, by Sex, United States, 2011
  • 5.5 Crude Case‐Fatality Rates, by Age
  • 5.6 Standardized Case‐Fatality Rates
  • 5.7 Standard (Combined) Population
  • 5.8 Standardized Case‐Fatality Rates Using Combined Standard Population
  • 5.9 Outpatient Visits, by Age and Race, United States, 2011
  • 5.10 Indirect Standardization of Outpatient Visits Rate
  • 5.11 Screening Program Data
  • 5.12 Indirect Standardization
  • 5.13 Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio Calculation
  • 5.14 Severity of Illness Distribution
  • 5.15 Recovery Distribution
  • 5.16 Stratum‐Specific Rates
  • 5.17 Crude Rates for Outpatient Visits in the Hancock Regional Hospital Network
  • 5.18 Crude Rates for Outpatient Visits in the Harrison Hospital System
  • 5.19 Population Distribution, Hancock Regional Hospital Network
  • 5.20 Population Distribution, Harrison Hospital System
  • 5.21 Standard Population Crude Outpatient Department Visit Rates
  • 5.22 Age‐Specific Rate and Expected Cases for Hancock Regional Hospital Network
  • 5.23 Age‐Specific Rate and Expected Cases for Harrison Hospital System
  • 5.24 Age‐Specific Rate and Expected Cases for Hancock Regional Hospital Network Using Combined Population
  • 5.25 Age‐Specific Rate and Expected Cases for Harrison Hospital System Using Combined Population
  • 5.26 Crude Rate for MI Complications in Jefferson County
  • 5.27 Crude Rate for MI Complications in Washington County
  • 5.28 Population Distribution, Jefferson County
  • 5.29 Population Distribution, Washington County
  • 5.30 Standard Population Crude MI Complication Rates
  • 5.31 Expected MI Complications, Jefferson County
  • 5.32 Expected MI Complications, Washington County
  • 6.1 Calculation of Likelihood Ratios in Tests with Dichotomous Results
  • 6.2 Calculation of Likelihood Ratios in Tests with Polychotomous Results
  • 6.3 Mammography and Pap Smears Results for Fiscal Year 2015–2016
  • 6.4 Screening Test for Diabetes
  • 7.1 Worldwide Impact of SARS, July 2003
  • 7.2 West Nile Virus Cases, United States, 2016
  • 7.3 Results of Gastritis Investigation
  • 8.1 Incidence of CVD in the East Bank Regional Hospital Service Area
  • 10.1 Cost Analysis, Year 1
  • 10.2 Program Costs, by Year
  • 10.3 Cost‐Effectiveness of Diagnostic Interventions
  • 10.4 Benefits of Community Outreach Program
  • 10.5 Cost‐Utility Analysis of Treatment Approaches
  • 10.6 Leading Causes of DALYs, Worldwide, 2000
  • 10.7 Leading Causes of DALYs, Worldwide, 2012
  • 10.8 Leading Causes of Death, Worldwide, 1990 and 2020
  • 10.9 Costs of Initiatives, Six‐Month Period
  • 11.1 Population Characteristics, by Age
  • 11.2 Persons with One Hospital Stay in the Past Year, by Age, Sex, and Race, Percent, 1999–2016
  • 11.3 Persons with Two or More Hospital Stays in the Past Year, by Age, Sex, and Race, Percent, 1999–2016
  • 11.4 Discharges, by Age and Sex, 2014–2016
  • 11.5 Discharges with at Least One Procedure, 2011, 2016
  • 11.6 Discharges with at Least One Procedure, by Age, 2011
  • 11.7 Discharges with at Least One Procedure, by Age, 2016
  • 11.8 Average Length of Stay, by Age and Sex, 2014–2016
  • 11.9 Percent Occupancy Rate, by Hospital, 2014–2016
  • 11.10 East Bank Hospital System Service Area Insurance Coverage, Persons Under 65, Percent, by Age, Sex, and Race
  • 11.11 Medicaid Coverage in the East Bank Hospital System Service Area, by Age, Sex, and Race, 2014–2016
  • 11.12 Medicare Coverage in the East Bank Hospital Service Area, by Age, Sex, and Race, 2011, 2016
  • 11.13 East Bank Hospital System Service Area Cancer Incidence Rates, per 100,000 Population, by Race and Sex
  • 11.14 East Bank Hospital System Service Area Prevalence of Heart Disease, Cancer, and Stroke, Percent, 2016
  • 11.15 East Bank Hospital System Service Area Prevalence of Diabetes and Poor Glycemic Control, by Age, Sex, Race, and Poverty Level, Percent, 2016
  • 11.16 Chronic Diseases in the East Bank Hospital System Service Area, by Age, Sex, Race, and Insurance Coverage, Percent, 2016
  • 12.1 Population, East Bank County
  • 12.2 Population, Lakeshore County
  • 12.3 Users of Long‐Term Care Services, Lakeshore County
  • 12.4 Users of Long‐Term Care Services, East Bank County
  • 12.5 Usage Rate of Long‐Term Care Services, per 1,000 Persons 65 Years and Older, by Age, Lakeshore County and WEC‐LC
  • 12.6 Usage Rate of Long‐Term Care Services, per 1,000 Persons 65 Years and Older, by Age, East Bank County and WEC‐EB
  • 12.7 Current Long‐Term Care Staffing, Lakeshore County
  • 12.8 Current Long‐Term Care Staffing, East Bank County
  • 13.1 Emergency Department Visits, by Age
  • 13.2 Emergency Department Visits, by Age and Sex
  • 13.3 Emergency Department Visits, by Age and Race
  • 13.4 Injury Visits to the Emergency Department, by Age and Sex
  • 13.5 Injury Visits to the Emergency Department, by Age and Race
  • 13.6 Primary Payment Source
  • 13.7 Wait Time and Time Spent in Emergency Department
  • 13.8 Leading Primary Diagnosis Groups at Arrival
  • 13.9 Disposition of Emergency Department Visits
  • 13.10 Visits Resulting in Hospital Admission
  • 13.11 Leading Principal Hospital Discharge Diagnosis Groups for Emergency Department Visits
  • 14.1 Age Distribution of Adult Population, East Bank City, 2016
  • 14.2 Crescent Doctors, Ltd., Patient Population, by Age and Sex, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.3 Crescent Doctors, Ltd., Patient Population, by Age and Race, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.4 Percent Distribution Length of Time Since Last Visit, Adult Patients, 2016
  • 14.5 Percent Insurance Coverage, Adults Under 65 Years of Age, 2016
  • 14.6 Percent Insurance Coverage, Adults Over 65 Years of Age, 2016
  • 14.7 Percent Distribution Major Reason for Office Visit, by Age, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.8 Percent Distribution Major Reason for Office Visit, by Sex and Race, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.9 Preventive Care Visits, by Age, Sex, and Race, 2016
  • 14.10 Presence of Selected Chronic Conditions, Percent Distribution, by Age, 2016
  • 14.11 Presence of Selected Chronic Conditions, Percent Distribution, by Sex, 2016

Figures

  • 1.1 Epidemiologic Data
  • 2.1 Population Pyramid, United States, 2016
  • 2.2 Foodborne Outbreak
  • 3.1 Incidence Rate of Readmissions
  • 4.1 A 2 by 2 Contingency Table
  • 4.2 Experimental Study Designs
  • 4.3 Framework of Randomized Controlled Clinical Trials
  • 4.4 Observational Study Designs
  • 5.1 Direct Method of Standardization
  • 5.2 Indirect Method of Standardization
  • 6.1 Validity 2 by 2 Contingency Table
  • 6.2 Validity Parameters for Arthritis Screening Tests
  • 6.3 Validity Parameters for Arthritis Screening Tests, Prevalence of 10 Percent
  • 6.4 Validity Parameters for Colorectal Cancer Screening
  • 6.5 Predictive Validity of Preadmission Screening Test
  • 6.6 Reliability Index
  • 6.7 Reliability Index Calculation
  • 6.8 Likelihood Ratios
  • 6.9 ROC Curve
  • 7.1 Common‐Source Outbreak
  • 7.2 Propagated Epidemic
  • 8.1 RVU Calculation
  • 9.1 Patient Satisfaction Control Chart
  • 9.2 Control Chart for Patient Falls
  • 9.3 Quality Control Chart
  • 10.1 Outcomes of Economic Evaluations
  • 10.2 Present Value of Community Outreach Program
  • 10.3 Present Value of In‐Hospital Program
  • 10.4 Discounted Benefits of Community Outreach Program
  • 10.5 Discounted Benefits of In‐Hospital Program
  • 10.6 Cost‐Effectiveness Ratio
  • 11.1 Service Area Population, Percent Distribution
  • 11.2 Percent of Patients with One Hospital Stay, 1999–2016, by Age
  • 11.3 Percent of Patients with Two or More Hospital Stays, 1999–2016, by Age
  • 11.4 Discharges by Sex, per 10,000 Population, 2014–2016
  • 11.5 Average Length of Stay, by Age, 2014–2016
  • 11.6 Occupancy Rate, Percent, by Hospital, 2014–2016
  • 11.7 Prevalence of Diabetes and Poor Glycemic Control, 2016
  • 12.1 Population Characteristics, by Race, East Bank County
  • 12.2 Population Characteristics, by Age, East Bank County
  • 12.3 Population Characteristics, by Race, Lakeshore County
  • 12.4 Population Characteristics, by Age, Lakeshore County
  • 12.5 Number of Users of Long‐Term Care Services, Lakeshore County
  • 12.6 Number of Users of Long‐Term Care Services, East Bank County
  • 12.7 Percent Users of Adult Day Care, by Age, Lakeshore County
  • 12.8 Percent Users of Adult Day Care, by Age, East Bank County
  • 12.9 Percent Users of Home Health Services, by Age, Lakeshore County
  • 12.10 Percent Users of Home Health Services, by Age, East Bank County
  • 12.11 Percent Users of Hospice Services, by Age, Lakeshore County
  • 12.12 Percent Users of Hospice Services, by Age, East Bank County
  • 12.13 Percent Users of Nursing Services, by Age, Lakeshore County
  • 12.14 Percent Users of Nursing Services, by Age, East Bank County
  • 12.15 Percent Users of Residential Care Community, by Age, Lakeshore County
  • 12.16 Percent Users of Residential Care Community, by Age, East Bank County
  • 12.17 Usage Rate of Long‐Term Care Services Among Persons 65 Years and Older, per 1,000 People 65 Years and Older, by Age, Lakeshore County and WEC‐LC
  • 12.18 Usage Rate of Long‐Term Care Services Among Persons 65 Years and Older, per 1,000 People 65 Years and Older, by Age, East Bank County and WEC‐EB
  • 12.19 Usage Rate of Long‐Term Care Services Among Persons 85 Years and Older, per 1,000 People 65 Years and Older, by Age, Lakeshore County and WEC‐LC
  • 12.20 Usage Rate of Long‐Term Care Services Among Persons 85 Years and Older, per 1,000 People 65 Years and Older, by Age, East Bank County and WEC‐EB
  • 13.1 Emergency Department Visits, by Age
  • 13.2 Emergency Department Visits, by Age and Sex
  • 13.3 Utilization Rate of Emergency Department Visits, by Age and Sex
  • 13.4 Emergency Department Visits, by Age and Race
  • 13.5 Utilization Rate of Emergency Department Visits, by Age and Race
  • 13.6 Rate of Injury‐Related Emergency Department Visits, by Age
  • 13.7 Rate of Injury‐Related Emergency Department Visits, by Age and Sex
  • 13.8 Rate of Injury‐Related Emergency Department Visits, by Age and Race
  • 13.9 Primary Payment Source, Percent
  • 13.10 Wait Time in Emergency Department, by Number of Visits
  • 13.11 Wait Time in Emergency Department, Percent
  • 13.12 Duration of Emergency Department Visit, by Number of Visits
  • 13.13 Duration of Emergency Department Visit, Percent
  • 13.14 Primary Diagnosis at Arrival, Percent, Selected Diagnoses
  • 14.1 Age Distribution, Percent
  • 14.2 Office Visits, by Age, Percent, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.3 Office Visits, Whites, Percent, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.4 Office Visits, Blacks/African Americans, Percent, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.5 Payment Sources, Adults Under Age 65, Percent
  • 14.6 Payment Sources, Adults Over Age 65, Percent
  • 14.7 Major Reason for Visit, by Age, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.8 Major Reason for Visit, by Sex, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.9 Major Reason for Visit, Males by Race, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.10 Major Reason for Visit, Females by Race, 2011 and 2016
  • 14.11 Top Five Chronic Diseases, Percent, by Age, 2016
  • 14.12 Top Five Chronic Diseases, Percent, by Sex, 2016

Exhibits

  • 2.1 ICD‐10‐CM Codes
  • 2.2 Nationally Notifiable Infectious Diseases, United States, 2016
  • 9.1 AHRQ Checklist

PREFACE

This book is intended to introduce the student and practitioner of health care management to the notion of health care for populations and the science of epidemiology. When the first edition of this book, Designing Health Care for Populations: Applied Epidemiology in Health Care Administration (Jossey‐Bass, 2000), was written almost 20 years ago, outside the field, epidemiology was viewed by many as a questionably relevant, but certainly complicated set of terms, formulas, and statistics. This view was also prevalent when the second edition, Managerial Epidemiology for Health Care Organizations (2nd edition; Jossey‐Bass, 2005), was published. However, given the recent changes in health care reform, epidemiology is now recognized as a core discipline pertinent to all branches of health care, including management. The initial motivating purpose of the text was to illustrate both the relevance and benefit of epidemiology in the field of health care management and population health management.

This is still the case with this latest edition. This revised edition has been jointly written by authors who bring a medical, managerial, and epidemiological perspective to the work. Contemporary applications of epidemiology in health care management include monitoring quality and effectiveness of clinical services, strategic and program planning, marketing, and insurance and managed care—as well as such traditional uses as tumor registries, infection control programs, and public health programming. This newest version has been written to introduce epidemiology principles, reinforce the traditional uses of contemporary epidemiology, and attempt to illustrate clearly the contemporary uses in planning, evaluating, and managing health care for populations. Health care reform initiatives are discussed throughout, with emphasis on the influence of epidemiological principles.

Perhaps the most important purpose of this book is teaching the practical application of epidemiology in health care management. Each chapter has been written to present epidemiologic principles, followed by examples and applications. Concepts, examples, and case studies are presented to allow the student and practitioner a way to understand epidemiology and its application in the design and management of health care for populations.

The text is organized in the following manner. Chapter One introduces the reader to the science of epidemiology. Definitions of epidemiology and an overview of its history in management are presented. Also, the transition from the traditional role of health care management to its new role in population health is outlined. A historical perspective on the development of epidemiology into a scientific discipline is presented. Recent health care reform is presented.

Chapter Two discusses the health and needs of populations and its use in management. Included in this chapter is a discussion of commonly available sources of data. Chapter Three presents epidemiological measures used in health care, with emphasis on those measures of importance to managers. Chapter Four presents study designs and measures of association of the cause and effect relationship of health and disease across and among populations. Clinical trials, as an example of experimental study designs, are presented, along with the more commonplace observational designs. Chapter Five introduces the concept of confounding, the problem of misleading data interpretation, and methods to address this problem. Included in this chapter is a discussion of the standardization of epidemiologic data and risk adjustment.

Chapter Six introduces clinical epidemiology as the core discipline of clinical outcomes research, clinical effectiveness, and medical management. This chapter covers topics including validity and reliability and other measures of test performance. Chapter Seven, which is a new chapter in this edition, presents infectious disease epidemiology, including epidemiological surveillance and monitoring infections. Health care–associated infections are discussed. Chapter Eight, another new chapter, covers reimbursement methods in use today and the role of epidemiology in determining reimbursement and performance. Chapter Nine provides a discussion of health outcomes assessment and the relationship between traditional epidemiological concepts; benchmarking, best practice, practice guidelines, and the measurement of quality of care are presented.

Chapter Ten describes the relationship between epidemiology and economic analysis, including the manner in which epidemiological measures are used in the evaluation of health care delivery and the formulation of health care policy for populations. Burden of disease is discussed, with a focus on the economic impact of disease.

Chapters Eleven through Fourteen present case studies of the application of epidemiology to the planning for and management of health care for populations. Chapter Eleven presents a case study focusing on hospital inpatient services. The intent of this chapter is to apply general concepts presented throughout the text to establishing a plan for realignment of inpatient hospital services. Chapter Twelve presents a case study focusing on long‐term care. Chapter Thirteen presents a case study illustrating the application of epidemiology to the study of emergency room services in a hospital network. Chapter Fourteen presents a case study focusing on physician practices.

Each chapter is supplemented with study questions. The purpose of the study questions is to aid the reader in understanding and applying the epidemiologic concepts presented within a management context.

We anticipate that the primary users of this text will be health care management students and practitioners, for whom we have presented the material in a practical and applied manner. This book can serve as a classroom text as well as an on‐the‐job reference for practitioners. After reading and using this book, we expect that the student or practitioner will understand and appreciate the relevance of epidemiology and look forward to using it in everyday health care management practice.

The preparation of this work has been the result of a multiyear collaboration, whose first product was the previously mentioned text. The authors of the first two editions have worked together for more than 30 years. This edition has a third author, who was our student and now is a colleague.

Finally, we would like to thank the students at Tulane University Medical Center School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, the University of Wisconsin‐Madison Medical School, the University of Indiana at South Bend, the University of St. Thomas Graduate School of Business, the University of Alabama Birmingham, School of Health Related Professions whose comments on previous work have been incorporated into all editions. Their collective feedback has improved this book significantly from its previous incarnations. Errors of omission remain the responsibility of the authors.

PJF

DJF

MAZ