As soon as Armistice was declared in the recent World War, I began to take up the study of the International Development of China, and to form programs accordingly. I was prompted to do so by the desire to contribute my humble part in the realization of world peace. China, a country possessing a territory of 4,289,000 square miles, a population of 400,000,000 people, and the richest mineral and agricultural resources in the world, is now a prey of militaristic and capitalistic powers—a greater bone of contention than the Balkan Peninsula. Unless the Chinese question can be settled peacefully, another world war greater and more terrible than the one just past will be inevitable. In order to solve the Chinese question, I suggest that the vast resources of China be developed internationally under a socialistic scheme, for the good of the world in general and the Chinese people in particular. It is my hope that as a result of this, the present spheres of influence can be abolished; the international commercial war can be done away with; the internecine capitalistic competition can be got rid of, and last, but not least, the class struggle between capital and labor can be avoided. Thus the root of war will be forever exterminated so far as China is concerned.
Each part of the different programs in this International Scheme, is but a rough sketch or a general policy produced from a layman's thought with very limited materials at his disposal. So alterations and changes will have to be made after scientific investigation and detailed survey. For instance, in regard to the projected Great Northern Port, which is to be situated between the mouths of the Tsingho and the Lwanho, the writer thought that the entrance of the harbor should be at the eastern side of the port but from actual survey by technical engineers, it is found that the entrance of the harbor should be at the western side of the port instead. So I crave great indulgence on the part of experts and specialists.
I wish to thank Dr. Monlin Chiang, Mr. David Yui, Dr. Y. Y. Tsu, Mr. T. Z. Koo, and Dr. John Y. Lee, who have given me great assistance in reading over the manuscripts with me.
Sun Yat-sen.
Canton, April 25, 1921.
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| Figure 1 | 16 |
| Figure 2 | 17 |
| Map I | 18 |
| Map II | 19 |
| Map III | 32 |
| Map IV | 33 |
| Map V | 44 |
| Map VI | 45 |
| Map VII | 48 |
| Map VIII | 49 |
| Map IX | 54 |
| Map X | 55 |
| Map XI | 82 |
| Map XII | 83 |
| Map XIII | 86 |
| Map XIV | 87 |
| Map XV | 90 |
| Map XVI | 91 |
| Map at end |
It is estimated that during the last year of the World War the daily expenses of the various fighting nations amounted to two hundred and forty millions of dollars gold. It is accepted by even the most conservative, that only one half of this sum was spent on munitions and other direct war supplies, that is, one hundred and twenty millions of dollars gold. Let us consider these war supplies from a commercial point of view. The battlefield is the market for these new industries, the consumers of which are the soldiers. Various industries had to be enlisted and many new ones created for the supplies. In order to increase the production of these war commodities day by day, people of the warring countries and even those of the neutral states had to be content with the barest necessities of life and had to give up all former comforts and luxuries.
Now the war is ended and the sole market of these war supplies has closed, let us hope, forever, for the good of humanity. So, from now on we are concerned with the problem as to how a readjustment may be brought about. What must be considered first is the reconstruction of the various countries, and next the supply of comforts and luxuries that will have to be resumed. We remember that one hundred and twenty million dollars were spent every day on direct war supplies. Let us then suppose that the two items mentioned will take up one half of this sum, that is, sixty millions of dollars a day which will still leave us a balance of sixty million dollars a day. Besides, the many millions of soldiers who were once consumers will from now on become producers again. Furthermore, the unification and nationalization of all the industries, which I might call the Second Industrial Revolution, will be more far-reaching than that of the first one in which Manual Labor was displaced by Machinery. This second industrial revolution will increase the productive power of man many times more than the first one. Consequently, this unification and nationalization of industries on account of the World War will further complicate the readjustment of the post-war industries. Just imagine sixty million dollars a day or twenty-one billions and nine hundred millions of dollars a year of new trade created by the war suddenly have to stop when peace is concluded! Where in this world can Europe and America look for a market to consume this enormous saving from the war?
If the billions of dollars worth of war industries can find no place in the post-bellum readjustment, then they will be a pure economic waste. The result will not only disturb the economic condition of the producing countries, but will also be a great loss to the world at large.
All the commercial nations are looking to China as the only "dumping ground" for their over-production. The pre-war condition of trade was unfavorable to China. The balance of imports over exports was something over one hundred million dollars gold annually. The market of China under this condition could not expand much for soon after there will be no more money or commodities left for exchanging goods with foreign countries. Fortunately, the natural resources of China are great and their proper development would create an unlimited market for the whole world and would utilize the greater part, if not all of the billions of dollars worth of war industries soon to be turned into peace industries.
China is the land that still employs manual labor for production and has not yet entered the first stage of industrial evolution, while in Europe and America the second stage is already reached. So China has to begin the two stages of industrial evolution at once by adopting the machinery as well as the nationalization of production. In this case China will require machinery for her vast agriculture, machinery for her rich mines, machinery for the building of her innumerable factories, machinery for her extensive transportation systems and machinery for all her public utilities. Let us see how this new demand for machinery will help in the readjustment of war industries. The workshops that turn out cannon can easily be made to turn out steam rollers for the construction of roads in China. The workshops that turn out tanks can be made to turn out trucks for the transportation of the raw materials that are lying everywhere in China. And all sorts of warring machinery can be converted into peaceful tools for the general development of China's latent wealth. The Chinese people will welcome the development of our country's resources provided that it can be kept out of Mandarin corruption and ensure the mutual benefit of China and of the countries coöperating with us.
It might be feared by some people in Europe and America that the development of China by war machinery, war organization and technical experts might create unfavorable competition to foreign industries. I, therefore, propose a scheme to develop a new market in China big enough both for her own products and for products from foreign countries. The scheme will be along the following lines:
I. The Development of a Communications System.
(a) 100,000 miles of Railways.
(b) 1,000,000 miles of Macadam Roads.
(c) Improvement of Existing Canals.
(1) Hangchow-Tientsin Canals.
(2) Sikiang-Yangtze Canals.
(d) Construction of New Canals.
(1) Liaoho-Sunghwakiang Canal.
(2) Others to be projected.
(e) River Conservancy.
(1) To regulate the Embankments and Channel of the Yangtze River from Hankow to the Sea thus facilitating Ocean-going Ships to reach that port at all seasons.
(2) To regulate the Hoangho Embankments and Channel to prevent floods.
(3) To regulate the Sikiang.
(4) To regulate the Hwaiho.
(5) To regulate various other rivers.
(f) The Construction of more Telegraph Lines and Telephone and Wireless Systems all over the Country.
II. The Development of Commercial Harbors.
(a) Three largest Ocean Ports with future capacity equalling New York Harbor to be constructed in North, Central and South China.
(b) Various small Commercial and Fishing Harbors to be constructed along the Coast.
(c) Commercial Docks to be constructed along all navigable rivers.
III. Modern Cities with public utilities to be constructed in all Railway Centers, Termini and alongside Harbors.
IV. Water Power Development.
V. Iron and Steel Works and Cement Works on the largest scale in order to supply the above needs.
VI. Mineral Development.
VII. Agricultural Development.
VIII. Irrigational Work on the largest scale in Mongolia and Sinkiang.
IX. Reforestation in Central and North China.
X. Colonization in Manchuria, Mongolia, Sinkiang, Kokonor, and Thibaut.
If the above program could be carried out gradually, China will not only be the "Dumping Ground" for foreign goods but actually will be the "Economic Ocean" capable of absorbing all the surplus capital as quickly as the Industrial Nations can possibly produce by the coming Industrial Revolution of Nationalized Productive Machinery. Then there will be no more competition and commercial struggles in China as well as in the world.
The recent World War has proved to Mankind that war is ruinous to both the Conqueror and the Conquered, and worse for the Aggressor. What is true in military warfare is more so in trade warfare. Since President Wilson has proposed a League of Nations to end military war in the future, I desire to propose to end the trade war by coöperation and mutual help in the Development of China. This will root out probably the greatest cause of future wars.
The world has been greatly benefited by the development of America as an industrial and a commercial Nation. So a developed China with her four hundred millions of population, will be another New World in the economic sense. The nations which will take part in this development will reap immense advantages. Furthermore, international coöperation of this kind cannot but help to strengthen the Brotherhood of Man. Ultimately, I am sure, this will culminate to be the keystone in the arch of the League of Nations.
In order to carry out this project successfully I suggest that three necessary steps must be taken: First, that the various Governments of the Capital-supplying Powers must agree to joint action and a unified policy to form an International Organization with their war work organizers, administrators and experts of various lines to formulate plans and to standardize materials in order to prevent waste and to facilitate work. Second, the confidence of the Chinese people must be secured in order to gain their coöperation and enthusiastic support. If the above two steps are accomplished, then the third step is to open formal negotiation for the final contract of the project with the Chinese Government. For which I suggest that it be on the same basis as the contract I once concluded with the Pauling Company of London, for the construction of the Canton-Chungking Railway, since it was the fairest to both parties and the one most welcomed by the Chinese people, of all contracts that were ever made between China and the foreign countries.
And last but not least, a warning must be given that mistakes such as the notorious Sheng Shun Hwai's nationalized Railway Scheme in 1911 must not be committed again. In those days foreign bankers entirely disregarded the will of the Chinese people, and thought that they could do everything with the Chinese Government alone. But to their regret, they found that the contracts which they had concluded with the Government, by heavy bribery, were only to be blocked by the people later on. Had the foreign bankers gone in the right way of first securing the confidence of the Chinese people, and then approaching the Government for a contract, many things might have been accomplished without a hitch. Therefore, in this International Project we must pay more attention to the people's will than ever before.
If my proposition is acceptable to the Capital-supplying Powers, I will furnish further details.
The industrial development of China should be carried out along two lines: (1) by private enterprise and (2) by national undertaking. All matters that can be and are better carried out by private enterprise should be left to private hands which should be encouraged and fully protected by liberal laws. And in order to facilitate the industrial development by private enterprise in China, the hitherto suicidal internal taxes must be abolished, the cumbersome currency must be reformed, the various kinds of official obstacles must be removed, and transportation facilities must be provided. All matters that cannot be taken up by private concerns and those that possess monopolistic character should be taken up as national undertakings. It is for this latter line of development that we are here endeavoring to deal with. In this national undertaking, foreign capital have to be invited, foreign experts and organizers have to be enlisted, and gigantic methods have to be adopted. The property thus created will be state owned and will be managed for the benefit of the whole nation. During the construction and the operation of each of these national undertakings, before its capital and interest are fully repaid, it will be managed and supervised by foreign experts under Chinese employment. As one of their obligations, these foreign experts have to undertake the training of Chinese assistants to take their places in the future. When the capital and interest of each undertaking are paid off, the Chinese Government will have the option to employ either foreigners or Chinese to manage the concern as it thinks fit.
Before entering into the details of this International development scheme, four principles have to be considered:
(1) The most remunerative field must be selected in order to attract foreign capital.
(2) The most urgent needs of the nation must be met.
(3) The lines of least resistance must be followed.
(4) The most suitable positions must be chosen.
In conformity with the above principles, I formulate Program I as follows:
I. The construction of a great Northern Port on the Gulf of Pechili.
II. The building of a system of railways from the Great Northern Port to the Northwestern extremity of China.
III. The Colonization of Mongolia and Sinkiang (Chinese Turkestan).
IV. The construction of canals to connect the inland waterway systems of North and Central China with the Great Northern Port.
V. The development of the Iron and Coal fields in Shansi and the construction of an Iron and Steel Works.
These five projects will be worked out as one program, for each of them will assist and accelerate the development of the others. The Great Northern Port will serve as a base of operation of this International Development Scheme, as well as a connecting link of transportation and communication between China and the outer world. The other four projects will be centered around it.
I propose that a great deep water and ice free port be constructed on the Gulf of Pechili. The need of such a port in that part of China has been keenly felt for a long time. Several projects have been proposed such as the deepening of the Taku Bar, the construction of a harbor in the Chiho estuary, the Chinwangtao Harbor which has actually been carried out on a small scale and the Hulutao Harbor which is on the point of being constructed. But the site of my projected port is in none of these places for the first two are too far from the deep water line and too near to fresh water which freezes in winter. So it is impossible to make them into deep water and ice free ports, while the last two are too far away from the center of population and are unprofitable as commercial ports. The locality of my projected port is just at midway between Taku and Chinwangtao and at a point between the mouths of the Tsingho and Lwanho, on the cape of the coast line between Taku and Chinwangtao. This is one of the points nearest to deep water in this Gulf. With the fresh water of the Tsingho and Lwanho diverted away, it can be made a deep water and ice free port without much difficulty. Its distance to Tientsin is about seventy or eighty miles less than that of Chinwangtao to Tientsin. Moreover, this port can be connected with the inland waterway systems of North and Central China by canal, whereas in the case of Chinwangtao and Hulutao this could not be done. So this port is far superior as a commercial harbor than Hulutao or Chinwangtao which at present is the only ice free port in the Gulf of Pechili.
From a commercial standpoint this port will be a paying proposition from the very beginning of its construction, owing to the fact that it is situated at the center of the greatest salt industry in China. The cheapest salt is produced here by sun evaporation only. If modern methods could be added, also utilizing the cheap coal near by, the production could increase many times more and the cost could thus be made cheaper. Then it can supply the whole of China with much cheaper salt. By this industry alone it is quite sufficient to support a moderate sized harbor which must be the first step of this great project. Besides, there is in the immediate neighborhood the greatest coal mine that has yet been developed in China, the Kailan Mining Company. The output of its colliery is about four million tons a year. At present the company uses its own harbor, Chinwangtao, for shipping its exports. But our projected port is much nearer to its colliery than Chinwangtao. It can be connected with the mine by canal thus providing it with a much cheaper carriage than by rail to Chinwangtao. Furthermore, our projected port will in future consume much of the Kailan coal. Thus eventually the Company must use our port as a shipping stage for its exports. Tientsin, the largest commercial center in North China, has no deep harbor and is ice bound several months a year in winter, and so has to use our projected port entirely as an outlet for its world trade. This is the local need only but for this alone it is quite sufficient to make our projected port a paying proposition.
But my idea is to develop this port as large as New York in a reasonable limit of time. Now, let us survey the hinterland to see whether the possibility justifies my ideal or not. To the southwest are the provinces of Chili and Shansi, and the Hoangho valley with a population of nearly a hundred millions. To the northwest are the undeveloped Jehol district and the vast Mongolian Prairie with their virgin soil waiting for development, Chili with its dense population and Shansi with its rich mineral resources have to depend upon this port as their only outlet to the sea. And if the future Dolon Nor and Urga Railway is completed with connection to the Siberian line then Central Siberia will also have to use this as its nearest seaport. Thus its contributing or rather distributing area will be larger than that of New York. Finally, this port will become the true terminus of the future Eurasian Railway System, which will connect the two continents. The land which we select to be the site of our projected port is now almost worth next to nothing. Let us say two or three hundred square miles be taken up as national property absolutely for our future city building. If within forty years we could develop a city as large as Philadelphia, not to say New York, the land value alone will be sufficient to pay off the capital invested in its development.
The need of such a port in this part of China goes without saying. For the provinces of Chili, Shansi, Western Shantung, Northern Honan, a part of Fengtien and the greater part of Shensi and Kansu with a population of about 100 millions are lacking of a seaport of this kind. Mongolia and Sinkiang as well as the rich coal and iron fields of Shansi will also have to depend on the Chili coast as their only outlet to the sea. And the millions of congested population of the coast and the Yangtze valley need an entrance to the virgin soil of the Mongolian Prairie and the Tienshan Valley. The port will be the shortest doorway and the cheapest passage to these regions.
The locality of our projected port is nearest to deep water line, and far away from any large river which might carry silt to fill up the approach of the harbor like those of the Hoangho entrance and the Yangtze estuary which cause great trouble to conservancy work. So it has no great natural obstacle to be overcome. Moreover, it is situated in an arid plain with few people living on it, so it has no artificial hindrance to be overcome. We can do whatever we please in the process of construction.
As regards the planning and estimation of the work of the harbor construction and city building, I must leave them to experts who have to make extensive surveys and soundings before detailed plan and proper estimation could be made. Whereas for rough reference see Map I, and figures 1 and 2.A
A As soon as this first program reached the American Legation in Peking, the former Minister, Dr. Paul S. Reinsch, immediately sent an expert to survey the site which the writer indicated, and found that it is really the best site on the Chili Coast for a world harbor, excepting that the entrance of the port should be at the west side instead of the east side as the writer proposed. Detailed plans have been made as figures 1 and 2.
Our projected Railway will start at the Great Northern Port and follow the Lwan Valley to the prairie city of Dolon Nor, a distance of three hundred miles. This railway should be built in double tracks at the commencement. As our projected Port is a starting point to the sea, so Dolon Nor is a gate to the vast prairie which our projected Railway System is going to tap. It is from Dolon Nor our Northwestern Railway System is going to radiate. First, a line N. N. E. will run parallel to the Khingan Range to Khailar, and thence to Moho, the gold district on the right bank of the Amur River. This line is about eight hundred miles in length. Second, a line N. N. W. to Kurelun, and thence to the frontier to join the Siberian line near Chita. This line has a distance of about six hundred miles. Third, a trunk line northwest, west, and southwest, skirting off the northern edge of the desert proper, to Urumochi at the western end of China, a distance of about one thousand six hundred miles all on level land. Fourth, a line from Urumochi westward to Ili, a distance of about four hundred miles. Fifth, a line from Urumochi southeast across the Tienshan gap into the Darim basin, then turning southwest running along the fertile zone between the southern watershed of the Tienshan and the northern edge of the Darim Desert, to Kashgar, and thence turning southeast to another fertile zone between the eastern watershed of the Pamir, the northern watershed of the Kuenlum Mountain and the southern edge of the Darim Desert, to the city of Iden or Keria, a distance of about one thousand two hundred miles all on level land. Sixth, a branch from the Dolon Nor Urumochi Trunk Line, which I shall call Junction A, to Urga and thence to the frontier city Kiakata, a distance of about three hundred and fifty miles. Seventh, a branch from Junction B to Uliassutai and beyond N. N. W. up to the frontier, a distance of about six hundred miles. And eighth, a branch from Junction C northwest to the frontier, a distance of about four hundred and fifty miles. See Map II.
Regarded from the principle of "following the line of least resistance" our projected railways in this program is the most ideal one. For most of the seven thousand miles of lines under this project are on perfectly level land. For instance, the Trunk Line from Dolon Nor to Kashgar and beyond, about a distance of three thousand miles right along is on the most fertile plain and encounters no natural obstacles, neither high mountains nor great rivers.
Regarded from the principle of "the most suitable position," our projected railways will command the most dominating position of world importance. It will form a part of the trunk line of the Eurasian system which will connect the two populous centers, Europe and China, together. It will be the shortest line from the Pacific Coast to Europe. Its branch from Ili will connect with the future Indo-European line, and through Bagdad, Damascus and Cairo, will link up also with the future African system. Then there will be a through route from our projected port to Capetown. There is no existing railway commanding such a world important position as this.
Regarded from the principle of the "most urgent need of the Nation," this railway system becomes the first in importance, for the territories traversed by it are larger than the eighteen provinces of China Proper. Owing to the lack of means of transportation and communication at present these rich territories are left undeveloped and millions of laborers in the congested provinces along the Coast and in the Yangtze Valley are without work. What a great waste of natural and human energies. If there is a railway connecting these vast territories, the waste labor of the congested provinces can go and develop these rich soils for the good not only of China but also of the whole commercial world. So a system of railways to the northwestern part of the country is the most urgent need both politically and economically for China to-day.
I have intentionally left out the first principle—"the most remunerative field must be selected"—not because I want to neglect it but because I mean to call more attention to it and treat it more fully. It is commonly known to financiers and railway men that a railway in a densely populated country from end to end is the best paying proposition, and a railway in a thinly settled country from end to end is the least paying one. And a railway in an almost unpopulated country like our projected lines will take a long time to make it a paying business. That is why the United States Government had to grant large tracts of public lands to railway corporations to induce them to build the Transcontinental lines to the Pacific Coast, half a century ago. Whenever I talked with foreign railway men and financiers about the construction of railways to Mongolia and Sinkiang, they generally got very shy of the proposition. Undoubtedly they thought that it is for political and military reasons only that such a line as the Siberian Railway was built, which traversed through a thinly populated land. But they could not grasp the fact which might be entirely new to them, that a railway between a densely populated country and a sparsely settled country will pay far better than one that runs from end to end in a densely populated land. The reason is that in economic conditions the two ends of a well populated country are not so different as that between a thickly populated country and a newly opened country. At the two ends of a well populated country, in many respects, the local people are self-supplying, excepting a few special articles which they depend upon the other end of the road to supply. So the demand and supply between the two places are not very great, thus the trade between the two ends of the railway could not be very lucrative. While the difference of the economic condition between a well populated country and an unpopulated country is very great. The workers of the new land have to depend upon the supplies of the thickly populated country almost in everything excepting foodstuffs and raw materials which they have in abundance and for disposal of which they have to depend upon the demand of the well populated district. Thus the trade between the two ends of the line will be extraordinarily great. Furthermore, a railway in a thickly populated place will not affect much the masses which consist of the majority of the population. It is only the few well-to-do and the merchants and tradesmen that make use of it. While with a railway between a thickly populated country and a sparsely settled or unsettled country, as soon as it is opened to traffic for each mile, the masses of the congested country will use it and rush into the new land in a wholesale manner. Thus the railway will be employed to its utmost capacity in passenger traffic from the beginning. The comparison between the Peking-Hankow Railway and the Peking-Mukden Railway in China is a convincing proof.
The Peking-Hankow Railway is a line of over eight hundred miles running from the capital of the country to the commercial center in the heart of China right along in an extraordinarily densely settled country from end to end. While the Peking-Mukden line is barely six hundred miles in length running from a thickly populated country to thinly populated Manchuria. The former is a well paying line but the latter pays far better. The net profit of the shorter Peking-Mukden Line is sometimes three to four millions more yearly than that of the longer Peking-Hankow line.
Therefore, it is logically clear that a railway in a thickly populated country is much better than one that is in a thinly populated country in remuneration. But a railway between a very thickly populated and a very thinly populated or unpopulated country is the best paying proposition. This is a law in Railway Economics which hitherto had not been discovered by railway men and financiers.
According to this new railway economic law, our projected railway will be the best remunerative project of its kind. For at the one end, we have our projected port which acts as a connecting link with the thickly populated coast of China and the Yangtze Valley and also the two existing lines, the Kingham and the Tsinpu, as feeders to the projected port and the Dolon Nor line. And at the other end, we have a vast and rich territory, larger than China Proper, to be developed. There is no such vast fertile field so near to a center of a population of four hundred millions to be found in any other part of the world.
The Colonization of Mongolia and Sinkiang is a complement of the Railway scheme. Each is dependent upon the other for its prosperity. The colonization scheme, besides benefitting the railway, is in itself a greatly profitable undertaking. The results of the United States, Canada, Australia, and Argentina are ample proofs of this. In the case of our project, it is simply a matter of applying waste Chinese labor and foreign machinery to a fertile land for production for which its remuneration is sure. The present Colonization of Manchuria, notwithstanding its topsy turvy way which caused great waste of land and human energy, has been wonderfully prosperous. If we would adopt scientific methods in our colonization project we could certainly obtain better results than all the others. Therefore, I propose that the whole movement be directed in a systematic way by state organization with the help of foreign experts and war organizers, for the good of the colonists particularly and the nation generally.
The land should be bought up by the state in order to prevent the speculators from creating the dog-in-the-manger system, to the detriment of the public. The land should be prepared and divided into farmsteads, then leased to colonists on perpetual term. The initial capital, seeds, implements and houses should be furnished by the state at cost price on cash or on the instalment plan. For these services, big organizations should be formed and war work measures should be adopted in order to transport, to feed, to clothe and to house every colonist on credit in his first year.
As soon as a sufficient number of colonists is settled in a district, franchise should be given for self-government and the colonists should be trained to manage their own local affairs with perfect democratic spirit.
If within ten years we can transport, let us say, ten millions of the people, from the congested provinces of China, to the Northwestern territory to develop its natural resources, the benefit to the commercial world at large will be enormous. No matter how big a capital that shall have been invested in the project it could be repaid within a very short time. So in regard to its bearing to "the principle of remuneration" there is no question about it.