Emerging megacities
Dicussion Papers
Edited by Konrad Hagedorn, Christine Werthmann, Dimitrios Zikos, Ramesh Chennamaneni
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Department of Agricultural Economics
Division of Resource Economics
Philippstr. 13, House 12
10115 Berlin
Tel.: +49 (0)30 2093 6305
Fax: +49 (0)30 2093 6497
www.agrar.hu-berlin.de/struktur/institute/wisola/fg/ress
www.sustainable-hyderabad.de
Contact: emerging.megacities@hu-berlin.de
The emerging megacities discussion papers are available at:
www.eh-verlag.de
ISSN print edition 2193-6927
Emerging megacities Discussion Papers are prepared by researchers working on topics in the realm of sustainable development in Megacities of Tomorrow, a research priority by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The papers have been peer-reviewed by a board of external reviewers.
Views and opinions expressed do not necessarily represent those of the Division of Resource Economics.
Comments are highly welcome and should be sent directly to the authors.
We welcome contributions on any topics related to Megacities of Tomorrow. Further information on the submission procedure is given at:
www.sustainable-hyderabad.de/emerging-megacities
Lüdecke, Mathias K. B.; Budde, Martin; Kit, Oles; Reckien, Diana
Evaluating Climate Change Scenarios
From AOGCMs to Hyderabad
Emerging megacities Discussion Papers, Volume 5/2009
ISBN/EAN: 978-3-86741-838-6
First published in 2012 by Europaeischer Hochschulverlag GmbH & Co KG, Bremen, Germany.
© Europaeischer Hochschulverlag GmbH & Co KG, Fahrenheitstr. 1, D-28359 Bremen (www.eh-verlag.de). All rights reserved.
Cover: Photo “Metropolis”, ferendus (flickr). Creative Commons License
No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, or stored in any retrieval system of nay nature, without the written permission of the copyright holder and the publisher, application for which shall be made to the publisher.
1 Introduction
2 Evaluation Algorithms
2.1 Evaluation Algorithm for Daily Precipitation
2.2 Evaluation Algorithm for Heat Waves
3 Data Sources and Preparation
3.1 Observational Data
3.2 AOGCM Model Runs
3.3 Data Preparation
4 Results
4.1 Projections of the daily Precipitation frequency distribution
4.2 Projections of the annual Precipitation
4.3 Projections of heat waves
4.4 Projections of the annual average temperature
5 Conclusions and Policy Implications
References
Literature
Data Source
Evaluating Climate Change Scenarios
From AOGCMs to Hyderabad
Mathias K. B. Lüdecke*†, Martin Budde†, Oles Kit†, Diana Reckien†
May 2009
Abstract
The paper develops adequate evaluation algorithms for applying Atmospheric – Oceanic General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulated climate scenarios over Hyderabad, India. The AOGCM simulated results were generated for the IPCC AR4 process and considered for a high (A2) and a low (Bl) global C02-emission scenario. The considered time slices are 1981–2000 (reference climate), 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. These model runs were evaluated to obtain projections of the four most impact-relevant climatic characteristics for Hyderabad: the frequency distribution of daily precipitation (important, e.g, for urban flooding), the total annual precipitation (e.g. for urban water supply), the probability and duration of heat waves (e.g. for human health) and the annual mean temperature (e.g. for urban agriculture).
Key words: climate change, local climate projections, Hyderabad, heat waves, intense rain
* Corresponding author. Email: luedeke@pik-potsdam.de
†